There’s no need to hit the panic button, says Destination Great Lake Taupō general manager Patrick Dault of the impact on tourism due to current unrest in the Middle East and rising fuel prices.
Like many commentators, he acknowledged he couldn’t say for sure what was going to happen, but the signs weren’t necessarily pointing to doom and gloom.
The three recent tourism campaigns funded by central government, including Cycle Aotearoa, had attracted a lot competitive pricing from the likes of Air New Zealand for inbound markets, he said.
“Especially out of the US, but also a section of our campaign was with WebJet, and they had originally earmarked the campaign to run for about two weeks. And after five days, they sold everything out.”
While the summer weather didn’t necessarily come to the party, indicators showed a strong performance in the tourism sector.
“If you're operating in the air, in the water, it wasn’t the banner summer perhaps you'd hoped for, but everybody else said that it was a banner summer, and the same momentum is still coming out of the US.”
Now, March and April, New Zealand’s shoulder season, operators were shifting their focus to markets like Asia and Australia.
“So hopefully those markets respond well. The weakness of our currency also plays in our favour because even though we're looking at substantial increases in fuel, it could be offset by a weak currency, which (means) New Zealand's still an awesome bargain for travellers.”
Dault said New Zealand was also seen as a safe destination.
“But overall, we don't even have to take refuge in that just yet. It's also the fact that we've got a great autumn, we've got a mild winter. So for our visitors, especially out of Asia, and out of Australia, we're still very desirable, and Tourism New Zealand, two weeks ago, were telling us that New Zealand's sort of rekindled that fire in Australia, hopefully through those campaigns, and that we’re back up as an aspirational destination, that we had lost, perhaps, out of COVID.”
Flights direct to Hamilton from Australia were also helping, he said.
He said he couldn’t blame people for seeing the world situation as scary and immediately factoring the price of fuel into any domestic trip.
“But we always overestimate the short-term impact and underestimate the long-term impact, right? So, so for us, I think it's longer term, just like COVID was.”
Meantime international visitor numbers were growing, he said.
“Usually, the lead time for Australia is 53 days, for the rest of the world, it's about six months. So… hopefully this doesn't translate into slow arrivals.”
Around now many international visitors were planning their overseas trips, he said, often in January, February for either that year or the next year.
“And then there's another peak time, which is usually in March and April for North America, for people planning their visits. Not… the northern hemisphere summer, but the northern hemisphere winter.”
During a recent scan of flight prices online, Dault said he had seen some rates at US$550 to come to New Zealand.
“Now, that's the most aggressive pricing I've seen in years.
“Again with the weakness of the dollar, you get more bang for buck if you're coming from the US, and, you know, a hotel's $400 a night, we have nice hotels for $400 a night. That's US$200. And remember in the US, they've got all these regional taxes that's always over and above your price, right? So, you've got to think that in the US… you can't stay anywhere for $200, let alone $400.
“So hopefully it's a bit of positivity… Hopefully, I go down in history as the guy that kept the positive mindset and came out of the crisis, not the crazy one that was delusional.”
